Reviewed by TipsterCheck Editorial TeamLast checked 26 October 2026MethodologyCorrections
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Break-Even Odds & Strike Rate Calculator
How do I work out break-even odds?
Break-even odds = 1 ÷ strike rate. If you win 25% of bets you need average decimal odds above 4.0 (3/1) to profit. Going the other way, break-even strike rate = 1 ÷ decimal odds: at 2.5 you need to win more than 40% of the time.
%
%
Break-even odds at 25%
4.00
Strike rate needed at 2.50
40.0%
How it works
- Break-even decimal odds = 100 ÷ strike rate %.
- Break-even strike rate % = 100 ÷ decimal odds.
- After commission c, break-even odds = 1 + (break-even odds − 1) ÷ (1 − c), because winnings are reduced.
Worked examples
Strike rate 25%
Break-even odds 4.0 (3/1). With 5% exchange commission you need 4.16.
Odds 2.5 (6/4)
You need a 40% strike rate just to break even.
Strike rate 55% at 1.8
Break-even is 55.6%, so this record is slightly losing despite more winners than losers.
Frequently asked questions
Divide 1 by your strike rate as a decimal. A 20% strike rate means you need average odds above 5.0 (4/1) to make a profit.
At decimal odds of 2.0 you need to win more than 50% of bets. Add in commission or a margin and you need a little more.
Because short odds need a high strike rate. Winning 60% of bets at an average of 1.6 is a loss, as break-even is 62.5%.
Yes. Commission reduces winnings, so you need slightly bigger odds. At a 25% strike rate and 5% commission, break-even rises from 4.0 to about 4.16.
Further reading
Tipster Subscription Break-Even Calculator Tipster Variance & Sample-Size Simulator ROI, Yield & Strike Rate Calculator Compare rated tipsters
For education only, not financial advice. 18+. When the fun stops, stop — BeGambleAware.org.