What is Dutching?

How Dutching Works

To Dutch a set of selections, you calculate what proportion of your total stake each selection should receive based on its implied probability. The formula is straightforward: divide each selection's implied probability by the combined implied probability of all selections in your Dutch, then multiply by your total stake. For example, if you want to stake £100 across three runners with implied probabilities of 25%, 20%, and 10%, the combined probability is 55%. The stakes would be approximately £45.45, £36.36, and £18.18 respectively. If any of the three wins, each bet should return a similar amount.

The key constraint is that Dutching only produces a guaranteed equal return when the combined implied probability of your selections is below 100%. If the combined probability exceeds 100% — which is common given bookmakers' overround — you will lock in a loss regardless of which selection wins. For this reason, bettors often Dutch across multiple bookmakers to find the best available odds on each selection, reducing the combined probability and improving the potential return. The method is popular in horse racing and football, though bookmakers' terms, rules on non-runners, and price changes can all affect the final result.

A Worked Example

Suppose you believe three horses in a race all have a strong chance and you want a £60 total stake spread across them. Horse A is priced at 3/1 (implied probability 25%), Horse B at 4/1 (20%), and Horse C at 9/1 (10%). The combined implied probability is 55%, well below 100%, so there is a potential profit. Using the formula, Horse A receives £27.27 (45.45% of £60), Horse B receives £21.82 (36.36% of £60), and Horse C receives £10.91 (18.18% of £60). If Horse A wins, your return is roughly £109, giving a profit of around £49 on your £60 outlay. The same approximate profit applies whichever of the three wins.

In practice, returns rarely match exactly because of rounding, and bookmakers may restrict or void part of a bet — particularly in racing if a non-runner is declared after stakes are placed. Always check the bookmaker's rules on non-runners and void bets before Dutching a race, as these vary between operators and can turn a planned profit into a loss.

Why It Matters When Judging a Tipster

When a tipster recommends Dutching a set of selections, the staking method has a direct effect on their reported results. A tipster who advises level stakes on individual selections will produce very different profit and loss figures from one who asks followers to Dutch those same selections together. If a tipster quotes their record in points but bases it on Dutched stakes, you need to understand exactly how those stakes were calculated to make a fair comparison with other tipsters or with your own approach.

Dutching also complicates sample size analysis and yield calculations, because the effective stake on each selection changes depending on the odds available at the time of betting. Followers who obtain slightly different prices from those advised will end up with different stake splits and different returns, making it harder to verify a tipster's proofed results in practice. When reviewing any service that uses Dutching, TipsterCheck looks at whether the tipster provides clear staking instructions, states which odds were used to calculate stakes, and records results consistently so that followers can realistically replicate the approach.

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