What is Morning Price?

How the Morning Price Works

Bookmakers compile morning prices overnight or in the early hours before a race, drawing on form study, weight, going, and jockey bookings. These odds are published on their websites, sometimes from around 9–10 am on race day, and represent the compiler's initial assessment of each runner's chances. Because little money has been staked at that point, the prices can be less refined than those available closer to post time.

Once punters begin betting, layers adjust the market in response. A horse attracting strong support will shorten; one that drifts in the market will lengthen. The morning price therefore acts as a baseline. Some bookmakers offer Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG), meaning if the Starting Price (SP) ends up higher than the morning price taken, the customer is paid at SP instead. It is worth checking whether a bookmaker offers BOG before deciding when to place a bet, as terms vary between firms.

Worked Example

Suppose a handicapper is priced at 8/1 in the morning market. A tipster advises the selection and publishes their tip at 10 am, quoting 8/1 as the advised odds. By the time the race runs at 2:30 pm, significant money has come for the horse and it starts at 5/1 SP. A punter who took the morning price of 8/1 is better off than one who bet at SP; on a £10 stake, the morning-price bettor returns £90 (£80 profit plus £10 stake), whereas the SP bettor returns only £60.

The reverse can also occur. If the horse drifts from 8/1 in the morning to 12/1 at SP, a punter on a BOG-qualifying account would be paid out at 12/1 rather than the 8/1 they took. This illustrates why the relationship between morning price, market moves, and SP matters both to the individual punter and to anyone assessing the realistic odds achieved by a tipster's followers.

Why Morning Price Matters When Judging a Tipster

When a tipster quotes advised odds, they should state clearly what price was available and at what time. If a tip is issued at 8/1 in the morning but the majority of followers can only get 5/1 by the time they read it, the tipster's recorded profit in points will be overstated relative to what subscribers actually achieved. Reputable proofing services log the time a tip is submitted, allowing the advised odds to be verified against market records.

Consistently quoting morning prices that are several points shorter by the time most punters act is a common way for tipster records to flatter reality. When reviewing a tipster on TipsterCheck, always check whether their advised odds are achievable and whether their ROI and yield figures would hold up at realistic prices. A small but persistent gap between quoted and obtainable odds can turn a profitable-looking record into a loss for the typical subscriber.

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