What is Forecast?

How a Forecast Works

A straight forecast requires you to name the first and second-placed horses in the exact correct order. A reverse forecast covers both permutations — horse A first and horse B second, plus horse B first and horse A second — which counts as two bets and costs twice your unit stake. A combination forecast extends this further, selecting three or more horses and covering every possible first-and-second pairing from that group; with three horses that means six straight forecasts, so a £1 combination forecast costs £6.

The payout method depends on where the bet is placed. Bookmakers typically use the Computer Straight Forecast (CSF) formula, which is an industry-standard calculation based on the starting prices of the two horses involved — the formula rewards longer-priced selections more generously. The Tote offers its own computer forecast pool, where returns are determined by the total money staked and the number of winning tickets, meaning the dividend can differ significantly from the CSF price. Rules on minimum dividends, non-runners, and dead heats vary between operators, so always check the relevant terms before placing.

Worked Example

Suppose a six-runner sprint has Horse A at 4-1 SP and Horse B at 6-1 SP. You place a £2 straight forecast on A to finish first, B to finish second. The CSF formula uses both SPs to produce a combined dividend — in this case the CSF might return, say, £18.40 to a £1 stake, so your £2 bet returns £36.80 (£34.80 profit). Had you instead placed a £2 reverse forecast, your total outlay would be £4 (two £2 bets), and only the winning permutation pays out.

Now imagine Horse C, an unconsidered 20-1 shot, finishes second instead of Horse B. Your straight forecast loses regardless of Horse A winning, because the second-placed horse does not match your selection. This illustrates how forecast betting is considerably harder to land than a simple win bet, and why the returns are proportionally larger when it does come in.

Why Forecasts Matter When Judging a Tipster

Forecast tips should always be treated separately from win or each-way tips when assessing a tipster's record. Because forecasts are harder to land, a lower strike rate is entirely normal, and comparing forecast yield against win-bet yield without adjustment gives a misleading picture. Look at the number of bets in the sample — forecast results can be highly volatile over small sample sizes, so a run of a few big-priced winners can flatter a short-term record considerably.

Pay close attention to how a tipster records their advised odds. CSF dividends are only confirmed after the race, so a tipster who quotes a forecast price before the off is estimating; the actual return may differ. Check whether results are proofed to Tote or CSF, whether non-runner rules are consistently applied, and whether the staking method (straight, reverse, or combination) is clearly stated for every tip. Inconsistency in any of these areas makes a tipster's published profit figures unreliable.

FAQs

Related terms