What is Double Chance?

How Double Chance Works

In any football match there are three possible results: home win (1), draw (X), or away win (2). A Double Chance market combines two of those outcomes into one bet, giving you three options: 1X (home win or draw), X2 (away win or draw), or 12 (either team to win, ruling out only the draw). If the match produces either of your two covered outcomes, the bet wins. If it produces the one outcome you have not covered, the bet loses.

Because you are covering two-thirds of all possible results rather than one-third, bookmakers price Double Chance selections at shorter odds than the equivalent match-odds markets. As a rough illustration, if a home win is priced at 2.00, a draw at 3.50, and an away win at 4.00, the corresponding 1X Double Chance might be priced around 1.30–1.40. Exact pricing varies between bookmakers and is determined by their own overround calculations, so always compare prices before placing.

Worked Example

Suppose Arsenal host Burnley. A bookmaker offers Arsenal win at 1.60, draw at 3.80, and Burnley win at 6.00. You are confident Arsenal will not lose, but you want protection against a draw. You place a £20 stake on the 1X Double Chance (Arsenal win or draw) at odds of 1.22. Arsenal draw 1-1. Your bet wins, returning £24.40 — a £4.40 profit. Had you backed Arsenal on the match-odds market at 1.60 and they drew, your £20 stake would be lost.

Equally, the 12 Double Chance (either team wins) at a price such as 1.55 would suit a punter who thinks a draw is unlikely but is uncertain which side wins. A £20 stake at 1.55 returns £31.00 if there is a winner. Stake and return figures here are purely illustrative; actual odds will differ by bookmaker and by match.

Why Double Chance Matters When Judging a Tipster

A tipster who regularly advises Double Chance bets is trading odds for security. That is not inherently bad practice, but it does affect how you should read their headline numbers. Strike rate will naturally appear high — sometimes above 70% — because two outcomes are covered. This can make a tipster's record look impressive at a glance while masking whether they are actually finding value. Always examine yield and ROI alongside strike rate; a high win percentage at very short prices can still produce a long-term loss if the odds consistently fail to reflect the true probability.

When proofing a tipster's selections, confirm that advised odds are recorded accurately. Because Double Chance prices are already compressed, small differences between the advised odds and the odds available to you at the time of betting can erode profitability quickly. Also check the sample size of their tips; a tipster with 30 Double Chance wins from 35 bets sounds compelling, but that volume is too small to draw reliable conclusions. Look for a minimum of 200–300 recorded bets before treating any yield figure as meaningful.

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